Exploring trade volume dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa through structural Gravity Theory modeling of international trade: A dynamic econometric analysis

Gbolahan Solomon Osho

doi:10.61089/abej.2025.3.144

Authors

Gbolahan Solomon Osho

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61089/abej.2025.3.144

Abstract

This study uses the Gravity Theory model to investigate trade volume determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Drawing on a comprehensive dataset spanning multiple years, the analysis examines the influence of economic, geographic, institutional, and cultural factors on regional and bilateral trade flows. The Gravity Theory model serves as the conceptual framework for estimating trade relationships based on the economic sizes of trading partners and the distance between them. This study reveals significant associations between trade volume and several factors, including GDP levels, distance, trade policies, and cultural affinities. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of trade dynamics in SSA and have important implications for policymakers seeking to promote trade facilitation and economic development in the region. Finally, this research accentuates the relevance of Gravity Theory modeling in explaining trade volume dynamics and offers insights for future empirical and policy-oriented studies in SSA.

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